| % of the population that smokes | Citi's earliest prediction for end of smoking | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 17 | 2030 |
| Belgium | 20 | 2051 |
| Canada | 18 | 2040 |
| Finland | 21 | 2093 |
| France | 25 | 2118 |
| Germany | 23 | 2280 |
| Greece | 40 | 2231 |
| Iceland | 16 | 2033 |
| Italy | 23 | 2091 |
| Japan | 24 | 2054 |
| Netherlands | 28 | 2048 |
| New Zealand | 18 | 2058 |
| Norway | 21 | 2042 |
| Spain | 26 | 2056 |
| Sweden | 15 | 2028 |
| United Kingdom | 21 | 2040 |
| United States | 21 | 2046 |
I find it interesting that two countries that have announced that they will eradicate smoking in the medium term, Finland and New Zealand, according to this table, won't actually achieve it until relatively late: New Zealand in 2058, and Finland in 2193. Netherlands (where there has been a huge backlash to the recent smoking restrictions) kicks the habit in 2048, but France carries on till 2118, 70 years later, and the Greeks for more than a century after that.
The predictions are based on fifty years' decline in smoking rates, and reports stress that 'if this continues', smoking will die out by the dates indicated.
If this causes any jitters in the stock market I doubt they will last. Ireland's smoking rate appears to have increased again after a short-term decline following their ban in 2004, and Scotland is failing to meet targets.
5 comments:
Just where do they come up with these stats for the UK seeing as a very large majority of smokers are off the radar because they smoke tobacco bought from the EU?
They've never heard of the Pareto Principle, I take it.
So, France 2118, Germany 2280, Greece 2231, Spain 2056, ltaly 2091, Belgium 2051
Have they no concept of the geography of EU?
No wonder the banks get themselves in trouble. Are Citibank going to invest and speculate on this garbage?
I'm off to Germany, as it seems that I will be able to smoke there the longest !!!!
Smoking, in 2050, to simply "disappear", just like that, up in a puff of smoke!
Joking aside, I very much doubt that something so embedded in western culture will simply cease to exist in 2050.
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