Saturday, 8 January 2011

Citibank predicts that smoking will cease

Citibank predicts that smoking in the UK will expire by 2050 in the UK. It produces a table with data based on national smoking rates across several countries:

% of the population that smokes Citi's earliest prediction for end of smoking 
Australia 17 2030 
Belgium 20 2051 
Canada 18 2040 
Finland 21 2093 
France 25 2118 
Germany 23 2280 
Greece 40 2231 
Iceland 16 2033 
Italy 23 2091 
Japan 24 2054 
Netherlands 28 2048 
New Zealand18 2058 
Norway 21 2042 
Spain 26 2056 
Sweden 15 2028 
United Kingdom 
United States 21 2046 

I find it interesting that two countries that have announced that they will eradicate smoking in the medium term, Finland and New Zealand, according to this table, won't actually achieve it until relatively late: New Zealand in 2058, and Finland in 2193. Netherlands (where there has been a huge backlash to the recent smoking restrictions) kicks the habit in 2048, but France carries on till 2118, 70 years later, and the Greeks for more than a century after that.

The predictions are based on fifty years' decline in smoking rates, and reports stress that 'if this continues', smoking will die out by the dates indicated.

If this causes any jitters in the stock market I doubt they will last. Ireland's smoking rate appears to have increased again after a short-term decline following their ban in 2004, and Scotland is failing to meet targets.


Anonymous said...

Bankers, the last resort of the ignorant!

Smoking Hot said...

Just where do they come up with these stats for the UK seeing as a very large majority of smokers are off the radar because they smoke tobacco bought from the EU?

Dick Puddlecote said...

They've never heard of the Pareto Principle, I take it.

Smoking Hot said...

So, France 2118, Germany 2280, Greece 2231, Spain 2056, ltaly 2091, Belgium 2051

Have they no concept of the geography of EU?

No wonder the banks get themselves in trouble. Are Citibank going to invest and speculate on this garbage?

Anonymous said...

I'm off to Germany, as it seems that I will be able to smoke there the longest !!!!

Jack P said...

Smoking, in 2050, to simply "disappear", just like that, up in a puff of smoke!

Joking aside, I very much doubt that something so embedded in western culture will simply cease to exist in 2050.