Fifteen-fold rise in tobacco control spending since 1999 but decline in smoking rate slows right down

On Friday 14 December Sheila Duffy of ASH Scotland speculated in an opinion piece on the possibility of a smoke-free future – one where smokers make up less than five per cent of the population.

Aiming for an adult smoking rate of five per cent or less in roughly a generation is an ambitious but an achievable target. It depends on effectively helping the 69% of adult smokers who say they want to be smoke-free to achieve their ambitions, and preventing children from becoming hooked on tobacco.[1]

She announces a tobacco control strategy to be launched by the Scottish Government in early 2013. It will show the way to reduce the smoking rate within twenty years to levels that might allow them to describe Scotland as ‘smoke-free’.

This effectively involves Scottish Government making policy decisions that will dissuade adults from making the decision to smoke. The graph below shows UK-wide smoking rates over around 60 years from 1948 (the solid lines), with the sharpest declines between the mid 1960s and 1990, most of it before tobacco control was a major government policy issue:



Smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence, by sex, Great Britain, 1948–2007[2]
Click to enlarge

It is immediately evident that the rate of decline has slowed in both genders since the middle of the 2000s. Scottish statistics on the smoking rate since 1999 are shown below:

Whether respondent smokes by year, 1999–2011 data, Adults (2011 base: 12,866)[3]
Click to enlarge

A slight and slowing decline in the smoking rate is clear. In November I submitted a Freedom of Information request to the Scottish Government in order to get a picture of how much money had been spent on tobacco control generally and smoking cessation specifically. The results are shown below:

Figures obtained from FOI request from the Scottish Government, December 2012
Click to enlarge

Viewed against the smoking cessation rate we have this:

Figures on tobacco control and smoking cessation expenditure obtained from FOI request from the Scottish Government, December 2012

Number of smokers taken from Scottish Household Survey reports

We can see that the decline in the smoking rate has slowed in spite of a sharp escalation of tobacco control spending in Scotland (spurting in the middle of the decade in preparation for the smoking ban). We must stress that the total smoking cessation expenditure on this graph is included in the total tobacco control expenditure and not additional to it. However Scottish Government total expenditure on tobacco control has increased by some 1500 per cent – and this figure does not even include expenditure by other bodies such as Cancer Research UK[4] and Big Lottery funding.

Two conclusions: (1) this represents an atrocious waste of public money, particularly in an age of austerity: the prescriptions of tobacco control have resulted in an attack on the hospitality sector and forthcoming restrictions will also inconvenience both smaller and larger shops, when the tobacco display ban is fully enforced. Tobacco control policies have also resulted in higher taxes on tobacco products, all of which favours illegal rather than legal tobacco suppliers.

And (2), if such a huge increase in expenditure has failed to persuade people not to smoke, it is hard to see what new initiatives could possibly make an impact. Certainly Sheila Duffy’s dream of driving the smoking rate down from 25 to 5 per cent of the population in the next twenty years is pure fantasy. She should be recommending an immediate cessation of all tobacco control expenditure.

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[1] http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/12/14/the-wisdom-of-scotland-s-smoke-free-gamble

[2] http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/types/lung/smoking/lung-cancer-and-smoking-statistics

[3] http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/08/5277/10#figure10.1

[4] http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/science/research/who-and-what-we-fund/browse-by-location/edinburgh/ash-scotland/grants/13466-a-tobacco-free-scotland-delivering-%60beyond

UK tobacco control and smoking cessation expenditure (from Westminster) are set out in 'ASH Briefing: UK Tobacco Control Policy and Expenditure' (updated October 2012) available here.
Press release link

Big Lottery money pays for smoking cessation

A recent motion in the Scottish Parliament

 *S4M-04716 Dennis Robertson: Congratulations to CVS Aberdeenshire Central and South—That the Parliament congratulates CVS Aberdeenshire Central  and South on receiving an Awards for All grant of £4,400 from the Big Lottery Fund; understands that the grant will be used to support an existing smoking cessation pilot project by training volunteer ex-smokers to befriend smokers and encourage them to participate in local alternative activities groups; considers that CVS Aberdeenshire Central and South received this award as it will help people to have better life chances and make communities healthier, and thanks it for the work that it does.

Smoking cessation would seem (officially) to be a national obsession, but do we see a return on increasing levels of resources committed to smoking cessation?

I have recently put a FOI request to the Scottish Government on the amount of money spent since 1999 on smoking cessation. The response is due by next Friday. I'll report it here.

Safe levels: the riddles of exposure to particulate matter

Enjoy this new report from ASH Scotland's Refresh project, funded by a Big Lottery grant. 'Refresh' is a near-acronym made up of the words 'Reducing Families' Exposure to Second-hand Smoke', and the report guides people working with expectant mothers and fathers to the best way to reduce secondary smoke exposure.

Interestingly the report doesn't mention third-hand smoke, but it does insist that there are 'NO safe levels of exposure to second-hand smoke'. As ever, there is a rider to this: the World Health Organisation has set a 'safe level' of PM2.5 (fine particulate matter, which ASH Scotland claims to be constituted chiefly of smoke). The document says:

• The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends levels of indoor airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) should be below 25 micrograms per cubic metre of air (25 μg/m3) averaged over 24-hours. 

• The average PM2.5 level in a typical smoker’s home is four times higher than the WHO guidance limit.

• A typical car journey where one person smokes exposes non-smokers to levels of PM2.5 that are about three times higher than the guidance limit.

The document is poorly referenced: the first bullet point gives as its reference Bonn: The WHO European Centre for Environment and Health; 2010, but the other two don't give a reference. An intriguing omission, given the figures involved. Recently we were told that the levels of toxins in a car containing a smoker would expose a passenger to levels of toxins 23 times higher than in a smoky bar. This figure was quickly corrected to 11. 


Taken together surely we are being told that passengers are being exposed to 100 micrograms per cubic metre in a car, but for a smoky bar exposure is only 9 micrograms per cubic metre, well below the guidance limit.


All the figures are of course plucked from the air (where are the references?). It is impossible to define the level of fine particulate matter in 'a smoky car', 'a smoky bar' or the home of a 'typical smoker'. Too many variables are involved even to give a sensible average. It is stretching credibility to claim that exposure to smoke in cars is any greater than smoking in a bar, never mind eleven times greater. It is also hard to believe that somebody's home is smokier than bars used to be.

More on PM2.5 measurements here.

Here, find a resounding endorsement of ASH Scotland from the members of the Scottish Parliament.